Coal prices are hovering at a low level, and the coal market "supply and demand is not prosperous". The side effects of the continued downturn have finally extended to railway transportation. According to the news recently disclosed by the National Development and Reform Commission, in June, the national railway coal transport volume was 140 million tons, down 12% year-on-year. From January to June, a total of 910 million tons of coal was shipped, down 11.2%. From January to June, the national coal output was 1.63 billion tons, down 9.7% year-on-year.

"On the one hand, the country has successively introduced policies and measures to resolve coal overcapacity, which have been effective. In particular, many illegal coal mines have been shut down, directly affecting the output of raw coal; on the other hand, the decline in raw coal production is related to the decline in market demand. In addition, thermal power generation and coking The decline in the consumption of produced raw coal was also the main reason for the decline in coal production in the first half of the year.” Said Wang Xingyan, Institute of Raw Materials Industry, CCID Research Institute.

At the same time as the output is greatly reduced, coal-producing companies pay more attention to logistics costs. Comprehensive logistics costs determine the choice of transportation channels for customers. In the second half of last year, after the Zhunchi line was opened, the coal in western Inner Mongolia was launched from the "Junchi Line-Shuohuang Line-Huanghua Port" channel, which is 15 yuan-17 lower than the "Dazhun Line-Daqin Line-Qinhuangdao Port" channel. Yuan / ton. Affected by factors such as short distances of railways and low freight rates, many high-quality coals in western Inner Mongolia were diverted from the Daqin line to the Shuohuang line, resulting in a rapid increase in the transportation volume of the Shuohuang line and a sharp decline in the volume of the Daqin line.

"The Daqin line used to be overloaded. Now it should be said that there is a certain amount of surplus." A Qinhuangdao Port staff told the reporter of China Times.

In the market competition, the operation and status of the “quasi-chi line-shuohuang line-huanghua port” has been significantly improved, and the center of coal shipments has gradually shifted from the “large coal transport channel forward” to the “second large coal transport channel”. Yellow line. Affected by this, coal shipments from Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port and SDIC Jingtang Port experienced a significant reduction of 55 million tons year-on-year. In the first half of this year, Qinhuangdao Port completed a coal throughput of 75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7 million tons. However, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua Port and Tianjin Port has increased sharply. In the first half of the year, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua Port increased by 28 million.

However, with the arrival of the peak of electricity consumption in summer, starting from June, the peak of coal consumption will come, and downstream demand will increase, and users will be more motivated to pull coal. This will drive the busy coastal coal transportation, and the coal transportation volume of northern ports may exceed the upper limit. Half a year.

"In the past two months, major coal-producing companies will also inevitably increase sales and shipments. Railway and port transportation will see significant improvements. The coastal coal market will have a long-lost boom in supply and demand. September and October are the low season for coal consumption. Despite the weakening of civilian power, the economy continues to stabilize and coal demand will not drop significantly. It is expected that the number of coal transported from north to south will slightly decrease year-on-year throughout the year. In the second half of the year, the economy will continue to remain stable, and civilian power will increase, driving the market to improve Coal prices will continue to rise. By the end of the year, it is expected that the transaction price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the port will exceed 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year.” said Wang Yun, an analyst at Qinhuangdao Coal Network.